Executive Summary

Q1 2025 was solid on core drivers: record Fee Related Earnings (FRE) $559M ($0.91/share) and robust inflows ($43B), while Spread Related Earnings (SRE) softened sequentially on tighter spreads and a deliberate liquidity build; Adjusted Net Income (ANI) was $1.1B ($1.82/share) .
EPS versus S&P Global consensus was a slight miss (ANI/share $1.82 vs $1.84*), while GAAP revenue far exceeded consensus due to scope differences; FRE margin expanded ~200 bps YoY as costs grew slower than revenues .
Management raised the quarterly dividend to $0.51 (annualized ~$2.04) and repurchased $722M of stock, underscoring capital return priority amid ongoing strategic investment (e.g., $1.5B Bridge Investment Group acquisition targeted for Q3’25) .
Key catalysts: wider Q2 spreads (“Liberation Day” market dislocation) and a strong origination pipeline ($56B in Q1, $25B+ deployed in April) positioning APO to redeploy liquidity at attractive returns; continued momentum in global wealth (~$5B quarterly inflows) and opportunistic credit (Accord+ II closed $4.8B) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record FRE with margin expansion: “Record FRE of $559 million…expense discipline…approximately 200 basis points of margin expansion” (CEO and CFO reiterated cost control and durable fee engines).
Origination and inflows strength: $56B origination and $43B gross inflows (Athene $26B organic, asset management $18B), with diversified platforms and wealth channel momentum (~$5B) .
Strategic positioning for volatility: “Armed with…dry powder…purchase price matters philosophy, we are uniquely built to thrive amid volatility and dislocation” ; Marc Rowan emphasized leveraging origination, reduced leverage, and liquidity to capture wider spreads .

Selected quotes:

“We are uniquely built to thrive amid volatility and dislocation.” — Marc Rowan
“We have earned the right to deploy in this market…expect an acceleration in returns rather than a reduction in risk.” — Marc Rowan (re ADS leverage reduction)

What Went Wrong

SRE softness and net spread compression: Net spread fell to 1.26% (down 11 bps QoQ), reflecting rate impacts on floaters/cash, higher new-business liability costs vs run-off, and asset prepayments amid tight spreads .
EPS slight miss vs consensus: ANI/share $1.82 vs $1.84* on conservative investment posture and an unfavorable notable item in cost of funds ($22M) .
Principal Investing muted: PII $14M vs $139M in Q4; compensation ratio elevated (86%) as monetizations remain guarded in a challenging exit environment .

Financial Results

Headline P&L, EPS, Margins (GAAP and Non-GAAP)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$7,773	$5,283	$5,548
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$1.29	$2.39	$0.68
ANI per share ($)	$1.85	$2.22	$1.82
FRE Margin (%)	57.4%	58.0%	57.2%
Net Spread (Retirement Services, %)	1.44%	1.37%	1.26%

Segment Breakdown

Asset Management Components ($USD Millions)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Management fees	$710	$742	$770
Capital solutions fees & other, net	$159	$160	$154
Fee-related performance fees	$57	$53	$54
Fee Related Earnings (FRE)	$531	$554	$559

Retirement Services Components ($USD Millions)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Fixed income & other NII	$2,806	$2,912	$2,914
Alternative NII	$236	$269	$315
Cost of funds	$(1,983)	$(2,116)	$(2,210)
Net Investment Spread	$1,086	$1,094	$1,048
Spread Related Earnings (SRE)	$856	$841	$804

Principal Investing ($USD Millions)	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Principal Investing Income (PII)	$78	$139	$14

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Gross Inflows ($USD Billions)	$74	$33	$43
Origination ($USD Billions)	$62	$61	$56
Dry Powder ($USD Billions)	$61	$61	$64
Average Net Invested Assets ($USD Millions)	$237,810	$244,796	$255,505
Total AUM ($USD Billions)	—	$751	$785

Actual vs S&P Global Consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Q1 2025 Actual	Q1 2025 Consensus Mean*	Surprise
ANI per share ($)	$1.82	1.844*	(0.024)
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)	$5,548	964.53*	+4,583.47
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	—	1,748.47*	—
Target Price ($)	—	158.51*	—
EPS # of Estimates	—	18*	—
Revenue # of Estimates	—	8*	—

Values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.

Note: APO’s GAAP revenue includes Retirement Services (Athene); analyst “Revenue” consensus may reference a narrower scope. Use care when comparing headline GAAP revenue to Street “Revenue” for APO.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Quarterly Dividend per Share (Common)	Q1 2025	$0.4625 (Q4 2024 run-rate; intended annual $2.04 from Q1 2025)	$0.51 (annualized ~$2.04)	Raised
SRE Growth Trajectory	FY 2025	~$3.5B target assuming 11% alts return (Investor Day baseline)	Mid-single-digit growth off rebased ~~$3.2B starting point; headwinds: 1.5 additional rate cuts (~~$40M), retail competitive pressure (~~10 bps on $35–$40B), higher prepayments (~~$40M)	Lowered/Conservative stance
Share Repurchase Authorization Remaining	Q1 2025	$1.77B at Q4 2024	$1.05B remaining after $721.5M used in Q1	Maintained program; capacity reduced by execution

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Public/private convergence; liquidity in fixed income	Detailed vision; growth of private IG within fixed income buckets; origination capacity as constraint	—	APO stepping in to “make a market” in private credit; underscores illiquidity in public fixed income and opportunity in IG private credit	Accelerating execution
Global wealth channel momentum	Fundraising up ~50% YoY; AAA nearing $20B by YE	$12B 2024 wealth inflows	Record ~$5B quarterly wealth inflows; 6 strategies >$1B; strong Asia traction	Scaling
Macro/tariffs/regulatory backdrop	—	—	Tariffs/regulatory framing; APO positioned defensively with dry powder and liquidity	Increased focus
Retirement Services net spread/cost of funds	Net spread 1.44%	Net spread 1.37%	Net spread 1.26%; bridge shows rate impacts on floaters/cash, prepayments, higher liability costs on new business	Compression (near term)
Tokenization/digital markets	Tokenization and digital platforms discussed; interval funds usage	—	Continued emphasis on liquidity/transparency; partnerships (State Street PRIV ETF)	Expanding pilots

Management Commentary

Strategic posture: “We are not a current-period profit maximizer…we are willing to sit things out, reduce leverage, wait for the fat pitch.” — Marc Rowan .
Market dislocation redeployment: “We believe we are one of the largest active buyers of assets post Liberation Day, $25 billion in April alone.” — Marc Rowan .
Wealth distribution durability: “Approaching $5 billion in the quarter…18 separate strategies…April has been a strong month as well.” — James Zelter .
SRE guardrails for 2025: “Mid-single-digit growth…off the rebased $3.2 billion…opportunity to earn some of this back based on deployment pipeline and wider spreads.” — Martin Kelly .
Capital allocation: “Repurchased $722 million of common stock in first quarter…returned $1.7 billion over last twelve months.” — .
Governance: Appointment of Gary Cohn as Lead Independent Director; CEO Marc Rowan also named Board Chair (two-thirds independent Board maintained) .

Q&A Highlights

SRE breakdown and conservatism: Management underwrites to spread/ROE; Q1’s higher funding agreements, cash/Treasury build position Athene to redeploy at wider spreads; headwinds include rate cuts, competition, prepayments .
Wealth outlook and platform breadth: AAA solid; diversified evergreen offerings; technology/education and portfolio solutions key to adoption; strong April flows .
Institutional demand and origination constraint: Insurance clients embracing private IG; APO origination remains the gating factor; open-architecture partnerships and co-investments (e.g., ADIP) to scale .
Liquidity provision in private credit: APO actively making a market in private IG credit to enhance tradability and adoption; expects competitors to follow, improving transparency and use cases .
2025 SRE puts/takes: Larger organic flows and better-than-expected margin deployment helped Q3/Q4; for 2025, normalized spreads assumed, with upside if April-wide spreads persist .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 ANI/share was a slight miss versus S&P Global consensus ($1.82 actual vs $1.84*). GAAP revenue of $5.55B far exceeded the Street “Revenue” consensus ($0.96B*), reflecting scope differences between analysts’ coverage and APO’s consolidated GAAP reporting that includes Athene .
EBITDA consensus ($1.75B*) is directional context only given APO’s emphasis on ANI, FRE, and SRE. Target price consensus stood at $158.51* during the quarter; 18 EPS and 8 revenue estimates informed consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term: Watch spreads and deployment pace — management built liquidity and shifted to cash/Treasuries in Q1 to “spring-load” for widening; April activity suggests redeployment potentially above normalized spreads, a positive for SRE recovery .
Fee durability: FRE growth engines (management fees, capital solutions fees, fee-related performance fees) and cost discipline are driving margin expansion; wealth channel momentum de-risks cyclicality .
Retirement Services sensitivity: Net spread compressed sequentially; expect gradual recovery if wider spreads persist and prepayment headwinds fade; conservative stance tempers 2025 SRE to mid-single-digit growth off ~$3.2B .
Capital returns balanced with growth: Dividend lifted to $0.51; $722M Q1 buybacks; strategic M&A (Bridge Investment Group) to bolster real estate origination and semi-liquid product ecosystem .
Structural tailwinds: Public/private convergence, traditional AM partnerships, tokenization, and private IG adoption (ETF/interval wrappers) broaden demand; origination remains the scarce asset where APO has scale advantage .
Trading lens: EPS miss modest versus consensus; narrative likely driven by redeployment into wider spreads, wealth fundraising resilience, and origination leadership — focus on Q2 spread and deployment updates as catalysts .